Rugby’s video reviews becoming too like an annoying SatNav

I would be interested to see a fundamental assessment of what priorities the authorities in various sports have when it comes to issues such as setting the laws of the game and enabling them to be applied effectively. Rugby, at least by European standards, was among the earlier major sports to adopt a video review system, usually referred to as “asking the TMO (Television Match Official)”. I am not opposed to video review, but rugby’s has become such a mess, it is making people like me lose interest in watching the sport.

Maybe, of course, it does not much matter if people like me are driven from the sport. I buy the odd shirt and attend the odd match but I probably contribute very little. Nevertheless, I would have thought at least one consideration would be improving the product for armchair fans – with the broadened exposure and indeed increased advertising which would come with that. So maybe it does matter. If it does, that the system is a mess from a spectator point of view comes to matter.

On New Year’s Day Ulster had a remarkable comeback against Munster, but its cause was definitely not helped at 0-17 by the referee and TMO colluding to find a reason to disallow a perfectly good try. Not only was this yet another example of the TMO getting things wrong (something which happens extraordinarily often), but in fact of a referee almost contriving a reason to disallow a score in the knowledge that the TMO may be convinced to back him up. The TMO was clearly influenced by the referee’s original implicit error, and therefore sought safety in numbers by going along with it – a normal response studied at length by psychologists, but one which served only to confirm a wrong decision. What is more, it took ages – had I not been making a drink at the time I would in fact have switched over to the Premier League football match also ongoing at that time before the decision was even made.

So, if people like me matter, this issue matters. It is removing from the entertainment value without any real evidence that it improves decision making. It is a bit like relying on a Satellite Navigation system which consistently takes you a more circuitous route than is actually required simply by looking at the map – yet if the unit is telling you to go that way, you are inclined just to go along with it (ultimately the same psychological effect).

That is not to say that TMOs, or indeed SatNavs, are always wrong. In fact, they are right more often than not (as they were subsequently in the Ulster match when a red card was confirmed). But if they take too long to reach a decision, and are then quite frequently wrong, we have to recognise that our reliance on them has become unhealthy and we need to think again about how they are used.

With football, the argument always was that such stoppages for video reviews would be unacceptable (notwithstanding my view that they are unacceptable in rugby). Eventually, however, Germany’s Bundesliga has arrived at a system which is much speedier. In a recent game at Wolfsburg, for example, a home goal scored from a header after a cross at a set piece was disallowed in the time it took for the players to run back to the centre circle for the restart without any apparent interruption at all – the referee made a specific request concerning offside quickly and had a response within seconds. (Even then, a majority of Bundesliga players taking a view in a New Year poll stated they would be happy to see video reviews abolished again – no doubt because they are simply viewed as too disruptive.)

Arguably, offside in football is clearer cut than crossing in rugby (the issue for Ulster in the case above), but for me the issue perhaps lies more in the question. First of all, while it is wise for a referee to have an original decision in mind, the TMO should not be led: the question should not be “Can you check for crossing?” (which leaves in place the leading assumption that there was crossing) but perhaps generally “Can you see any reason I should disallow the try”? Second, time is an issue: if no reason can quickly be found to overturn an assumption or disallow a score, it probably should not be overturned or disallowed. Third, it does raise a broader question – is it possible that, at least at the highest level, line judges in rugby should have an enhanced role, making the TMO a genuine last resort rather than a SatNav option we are inclined to overrely on?

As ever, I emphasise that rugby is not my game. But I do see a system which will need to be changed urgently if potential recruits to the game are not to be lost thanks to the sheer tedium of over-checking decisions only in too many cases to confirm errors.

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Is fundamental change required for how football is refereed?

The Times’ Henry Winter is always excellent and some weeks ago he wrote a superb piece (frustratingly behind a pay wall) that if even Petr Cech is losing it with referees, there is probably a serious problem.

Recent weeks alone have seen utterly ludicrous penalties being awarded, yellow cards being issued for gross tackles which endanger safety and should result in long-term bans, and dives going unpunished. Mr Winter makes the interesting point that a hugely disproportionate number of controversial (actually, plain wrong) decisions have occurred late in games.

The main issue here is that the advent of professional refereeing has not seen any increase in refereeing standards. The footballing authorities seem, therefore, to be questioning what they can do to improve standards. I wonder, however, if there is not another question: is it conceivable to raise standards beyond their current level?

To put this another way, does football need to consider more profoundly how the game is officiated?

A modern football match at the highest level now typically has four or five officials – a referee, two assistants running the line, and one or two more technical officials managing the dug-out, substitutions and so on. Again, however, none of this has in fact improved the standards of refereeing. Are we not wasting these extra officials?

For example, originally football had two umpires (as hockey still has). American Football actually makes use of no fewer than seven on-field officials.

To give a recent but common example of how this works, I was umpiring a hockey match recently where a shot on the far side of the circle was deflected behind by a defender, so awarded a hit from the 23-metre line to the attacking team (the standard restart when a defender plays the ball behind unintentionally). It had not, in all truth, even occurred to me that the play behind had been anything other than legal. Yet the attacking team politely appealed for a penalty corner, on the basis it had in fact hit the defender’s foot – something which, as I politely explained back, I could not possibly have seen from my angle given it had occurred on the far side of the player concerned. However, I then had the option of glancing at the other umpire, who although further away had the better angle, who was able to signal back that in fact a penalty corner should be awarded and I was able to overturn my original decision. In fact the team scored from the penalty corner, so the decision was critical – but it required two umpires, not one. So is it reasonable that we expect one referee alone to get everything right in football?

For a period in some competitions two more officials were added on the goal-line to see if the ball had fully crossed it. With video technology, this has now been rendered pointless, but I wonder if they should not be reintroduced, but on the far side of the goal from the assistant referee. That would give four officials on the lines, covering between them almost the whole field, who could assist the referee with key decisions. Mic them all up, and you would have a system which may just work considerably more effectively than the current one.

Take, for example, the controversial awarding of a penalty to West Bromwich Albion against Arsenal just before the New Year (the one which so angered Petr Cech). In that case, the ball was on the left-hand side of the penalty area (the far side from the assistant referee) and the referee himself was chasing play a good fifteen yards back, with a completely hopeless angle. The attacking player in fact did not even appeal for a penalty, wanting instead a corner. The referee must have believed that he saw a hand go out to an unnatural position or with the intent to play the ball, and thus awarded a decisive penalty – even though that is simply not what happened. The point here is that an official positioned on the goal line would have been nearer the incident and could have told the referee that that was not what happened; indeed, he would likely have signalled for a corner, suggesting plainly the referee that there was no case for awarding a penalty.

Thus, by adding two further assistants on the goal-line and enhancing the powers of all the assistants (rather than just wasting them solely on technical issues such as dug-out management), we would have a game in which the correct decision would be arrived at far more often. The final arbiter would remain the referee, but he (or she) would no longer be making judgements solely based on what they have seen often from tens of yards away.

We need, at the very least, to re-frame the question. One human being can only observe so much. This is not so much about refereeing standards, as about refereeing systems.

Football’s New Year’s Resolution – sort kits out and stop exploiting people

Kits used by teams in the Premier League have long been beyond a joke. It can be genuinely quite difficult, on television, to tell a clear difference between them (for example, dark blue versus black), and often the tricky combination has been brought about for no good reason (for example when Arsenal change from red away from home against a team which does not wear red). The joke is now well beyond funny.

One of the worst offenders is in fact my own team, Arsenal. Arsenal this season have produced a mid-light blue kit and a black kit (with fetching pink trim) neither of which has any tradition and only one of which (if that) is even necessary. This is all about money grabbing – encouraging people (particularly parents under pressure) to fork out ludicrous expense for shirts which will be out of fashion in only a few months anyway. Far from going into grass roots sport, the money so gained (it is not earned) goes into making the likes of Stan Kroenke multi-billionaires rather than merely billionaires. It’s ludicrous and it’s nasty.

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Then it gets worse. Not content with having produced an unnecessary blue kit alongside an unnecessary black kit (Arsenal’s traditional away colour was white and then, post-War, gradually switched to yellow), it turned out on a trip to West Bromwich Albion neither of these, nor the home kit in usual style, would work. This is partly because the home side also has a ludicrous kit – which is traditional blue and white stripes on the front but in fact entirely blue on the back. However, it is mainly because Arsenal produced two kits not for utility but for money-grabbing. A single traditional yellow with blue away kit would have produced no problem anywhere this season, but actually now we have the contrived situation of three kits none of which sufficed for this fixture. Thus, on top of everything else, red shorts had to be added – a fourth separate set of shorts.

This nonsense could of course be easily resolved. A simple requirement for every team to produce one kit which is predominantly a dark colour and one which is predominantly a light colour would sort it. This is the solution used everywhere from the National Football League in the United States to the Ulster Hockey League Junior Division 8B in Ireland. If the Premier League has even the remotest interest in sport rather than money grabbing, it will introduce a similar requirement – two kits per team, one dark and one light, and that’s it. (While we’re at it, let’s go back to reserving black for the ref – it is no one’s traditional colour.)

I’ll not hold my breath.

Ministers needed or universal free healthcare will be thing of the past

Opinion piece by Paula Bradshaw MLA (Alliance Party, Belfast South):

The news that the Department of Health would make arrangements to implement the recommended pay award for workers in the Health Sector was welcome, but the wholly unnecessary delay in putting in place a budget for it was just the tip of the iceberg. Health pay, budgets and transformation cannot be managed without Ministers in place urgently – and any party which really cared about our collective health and well-being would recognise this. 

The notion that we have a universal healthcare service free at point of access is already a delusion. Increasingly, people with means are understandably opting out of a system with vast waiting lists and collapsing primary care services, and choosing instead to pay to go private. This means we already, in practice, have a two-tier service – both for staff and patients. The founding principles of the NHS no longer have any meaningful application when that is the case. What needs to be done?

Firstly, any organisation is only as good as the workers within it, and if workers are not paid properly and do not have reasonable conditions, they will understandably begin to opt out. We need to reassess pay levels for full-time staff upwards in the light of the rising cost of living, and we also need to implement caps to stop agencies profiteering on the back of staffing shortfalls. This, of course, requires legislation – including a Minister and an Assembly. 

Secondly, we need to bring far more money into the Health Service while it is being reformed to enable “dual running” – i.e. the operation of the Service as currently alongside the reformed Service. This means a fundamental review of where we are allocating devolved funds – not least those wasted on segregated services or mismanaged programmes – as well as consideration of sources of other income. This too, realistically, requires Ministers and an Assembly. 

Thirdly, we need to implement the Bengoa proposals. This is an immense reform programme but it has the support of those working within the Service who recognise that it is the only way to restore a universal service free at point of access with expert, quality care available to the entire population on an equal basis. This will see more emphasis on the right pathway immediately upon entering the system, a greater focus on prevention and ongoing care in the home, and the development of world-class specialist provision. However, the programme requires significant legislative change – which again requires a Minister and an Assembly.

It is time for those who care about our healthcare to stand up and be counted. There is no excuse for not putting back into operation the devolved institutions of government to take responsibility for adequate pay, an enhanced budget and a vital reform programme.  

Merry Christmas

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Be good. Stay safe. Have fun.

Identity politics work – sadly

In the UK yesterday, many people from the “Remain” end of the spectrum expressed disbelief that UK passports will be blue from October 2019. Some, the current author included, noted that they were not blue in any case before they switched to their current burgundy; others suggested there were other priorities in national life; still more tried to pin a cost on the change (we will come to that…); and pollsters said people did not really care that much.

Meanwhile, in the US, the President was arguing for the term “Merry Christmas” in preference to “Happy Holidays”. There was a similarly disdainful reaction from Liberals; and pollsters again said people did not really care that much.

However, I suspect people do care. That is why the UK Prime Minister and US President are getting up to such antics around “identity politics”. As we know only too well in Northern Ireland, identity politics work.

A few years ago, at around this time of year, Sinn Fein decided to switch its stance on the Union Flag at City Hall, thus meaning that an Alliance amendment in line with its own policy would see it flown only on designated days. Very few people would have expressed much interest in the subject to pollsters, but Sinn Fein was deliberately pulling at emotions and identities; and the DUP responded. The result was economic chaos – and both parties improved their position at the subsequent elections. Having messed around for a year now while Health goes unreformed, Education becomes unsustainable and the economy fails to grow, the two parties should be being punished by the electorate for their callous unwillingness to get on with the job – yet both, in fact, are scoring record poll numbers. Identity politics work.

I was in the US last month and I did notice the preponderance of the word “holiday”, to an extent that it is now plainly ludicrous. A market outside the Smithsonian in Washington DC plays Christmas music, sells Christmas gifts, is based on German Weihnachtsmaerkte (“Christmas markets”), yet incredibly is referred to as a “Holiday Market”. This, to people of even slightly Conservative leanings, is surely an example of political uber-correctness, and a reaction is unsurprising. This notion that things which are obviously one thing cannot be referred to as that thing for fear of causing some kind of “offence” genuinely and often in fact legitimately annoys people, even though they overtly make little of it. So, when someone actually appeals to that covert annoyance, it is unsurprising that that appeal is successful. Identity politics work.

And so it was with the response to the blue passports. Firstly, there is the somewhat academic factual reaction (“Ah, but Croatia has its own colour and it is in the EU”); but for people like last week’s Question Time audience in Barnsley, that misses the point and just looks smug. Secondly, there is the (entirely legitimate) mockery of the notion that the colour is “iconic” for the simple reason that UK passports were never that shade of blue; but perhaps this too misses the point, which is presumably that at least they will not be burgundy like the Continentals. Thirdly, there is the notion that there are other priorities; but here we have the Remainers/Liberals engaging in fake news of their own. Although the new passport provision contract will indeed cost nearly £500m, the fact is it would cost that regardless of the colour – so the notion that not changing the colour would leave £500m over to tackle homelessness or to spend on the NHS is no more accurate than the infamous £350m claim on the Brexit bus.

In fact, we all get embroiled in identity politics – even those of us who claim to be above it get embroiled in it, even though we tell ourselves that we only do so to try to emphasise why we are above it. In fact, I do think it is worth making the point that having a big fuss over changing a passport colour does make the British themselves look rather insecure and their government look pathetic. If anything, however, even this is merely a representative symptom of the broader problem – that the British are fundamentally insecure and their government is pathetic. To be clear, I could not care what colour my passport is, which means it does not bother me to change it; what bothers me are the ludicrous fantasies of “bringing back”, “iconic colours” and “independence” when we should not be seeking to “bring back”, there is nothing “iconic” about the colour, and the fact the passports will be made abroad to standards set abroad rather demonstrates the absurdity of the notion of “independence” in an interdependent world.

For all that, in fact what has happened is the Prime Minister has successfully diverted attention from the real story, which is that David Davis’ impact assessments have now been shown beyond doubt not to, er, assess impact. Since one Cabinet Minister has gone for lying, there is a cast iron case for a second going. But we are not talking about that. Identity politics can be a lovely diversion when you want to shield some other story – which is why they work. Sadly.

Is NI capable of public service reform?

In the midst of the Brexit entertainment, the RHI inquiry has been keeping Stormont occupied. Whatever the political fallout, it is evident already that it will demonstrate something beyond doubt – Northern Ireland’s Civil Service is in need of significant reform.

The media are highlighting the apparently obvious issue that the crux of the problem was that generalist civil servants could not fully comprehend a specialist issue (renewable energy). Perhaps the real issue, however, is that many surely noted the nonsense of offering subsidies greater than the actual value, but seemingly no one felt able to do anything about raising it.

I recently glanced at the application pack for a job in the NI Civil Service (which, by the way, is not a particularly significant employer here – many jobs which would be seen as “civil service” are in fact government jobs elsewhere, e.g. in a Health Trust). The advert specifically noted that the job was open to people from outwith the Civil Service. Yet, in practice, it wasn’t.

For, to have a reasonable chance at getting such a position, a candidate was required a strong knowledge of a vast table of competencies. Realistically, such competencies cannot be picked up off a page; in practice, those who could demonstrate those competencies from their past professional career would be at an advantage, meaning those who already knew them (i.e. those already in the Civil Service) would be at an advantage. This is in fact discrimination – it may be unintentional, but inevitably those setting the terms of the position will set them in a way biased towards themselves. This is widely recognised when it comes to tackling sexual discrimination or religious discrimination. Here was another example. An organisation really open to outsiders would not be forcing them into a straitjacket of internally recognised competencies before they even enter – quite on the contrary, it would be considering what additional skills and indeed ways of working they could bring into Service and emphasising those as priority.

When it comes to reform, this is very troubling. The Review of Public Administration was an example of such a shambles. The whole purpose was to save money and deliver what was known as “co-terminosity” – so that Council boundaries, police district boundaries, Health Trust boundaries and so on would align. Having taken so long that an additional local government election was required, the outcome astonishingly failed to meet either requirement. It would, literally, have been better not to do it at all.

Areas such as the Bengoa reforms are even more complex and many multiples of times more important. So the question has to be asked honestly: are we really up to it?

And then we have the vast complications of Brexit. Here, over 140 powers will be added to the devolved mix, even all other things being equal (and they may not be). Yet there will be a scant resource allocation coming with them. This threatens to cause paralysis in Whitehall, never mind Stormont. It will require vast reform – “doing more with less” as the slogan goes.

Add to this the prospect of marked additional powers to manage Northern Ireland’s specific solutions, changes to financing including corporation tax powers and reform of the education system. We have to ask serious questions about how any administration could possibly be prepared. However, this administration – one where new skills and thinking are actually discriminated against even when the need for them is recognised – will surely be particularly unprepared without reforming itself.

It is not only new skills and new thinking which will obviously be required once the RHI Inquiry is finished, but also the whole notion of the “generalist” civil servant. Rightly or wrongly, people will pose the question: can the same person drift expertly between managing the introduction of PIP one day to overseeing policy on the replacement of CAP the next? Is this a reasonable expectation of anyone?

Nevertheless, the broader issue seems why lower ranks seem disempowered (from, for example, raising queries when subsidy levels appear to exceed actual outlay). Northern Ireland’s administration needs experts with experience, coming most likely from outside the Service to work at least alongside generalists; and it needs people who will speak up, without fearing for their promotion prospects as a result. This is the level of the reform required.

One of the interesting aspects of an article from Queen’s University about additional powers for Northern Ireland post-Brexit was the implication that the public needs to be better informed and take more care. This perhaps is the crux of it. Bungles around RPA or RHI may sound like an alphabet soup, but they are not inconsequential. We need a public sector which is better at reform (including of itself), and a public which is better at caring about it.

“Civic nationalist” letter merely shows how powerless SF is

Sinn Féin made a fuss of an open letter to the Taoiseach from “civic nationalism” earlier this month – yet the signatories and the phraseology demonstrated that the whole thing had been orchestrated by Sinn Féin and thus was profoundly political, not civic.

That the letter was written to the Leader of Fine Gael merely shows how powerless Sinn Féin is for as long as it refuses to participate in the bodies to which it has been elected. With no Executive giving Northern Ireland true voice over Brexit and no Sinn Féin MPs participating in the Hung Parliament, the party was left trying to force a snap election out of which it may have gained a seat in the Irish Government – but that plan has gone out of the window too.

Sinn Féin’s representative work on behalf of its voters is often effective, but at a political level the fact is the party is lost. Many of its best advisers have left, it is losing local councillors to internal disputes almost monthly, and its next generation inspires little real confidence. The all-island Party is losing ground in the South as quickly as it is gaining it in the North.

To gain real influence, it will need to be a player – somewhere – sooner rather than later. This latest effort at invigorating supporters merely demonstrated how sidelined it is, at a crucial juncture in the island’s history. Its New Year’s resolution should be to enter the field of play.

DUP: “Destroy the Union Party”

I have followed and been involved in politics a long time, but I still cannot grasp what drives the DUP (or its fellow travellers like UKIP and the Tea Party). The positions they take are at such obvious odds from the objectives they claim to hold dear, you are left wondering whether they have some bizarre fetish for self-destruction.

Five years ago, the Union between Northern Ireland, England, Wales and Scotland could scarcely have been more secure. Scotland was stirring, a wee bit, but Ireland had just suffered a monumental financial crash and the UK (in the EU) looked a safe haven – able to borrow money despite a recession at such low rates that it in fact loaned some to Ireland. Within Northern Ireland, devolution was fairly secure and then, of course, the opportunity for Unionists to claim eternal victory arose when Irish Republicans, for the first time in history, voted openly to fly the Union Flag over a civic building in an Irish city – and indeed to do so in line with established and common British practice.

Of course, we know what came next. Unionists decided to resort to the streets in displays of “civil disobedience” (despite being opposed to this in the event, for example, of a “Hard Border”); they then decided clumsily to get involved in the Scottish referendum by, for example, advocating partition; they then thought it would be funny to kick the rug from under the basic 2006 settlement by taking money to join the “Leave” cause (despite having letters already penned from their own Ministers welcoming the stability which would have resulted from a “Remain” victory); then they decided to get embroiled in belief-defying incompetence around NAMA properties, SIF hand-outs, RHI boilers, RPA boundaries and much else while also ensuring Northern Ireland reformed neither its libel laws nor its party donor laws to protect their own interests; and then, not content with the damage already accruing in the light of a demographic trend which was always going to cost them their Assembly majority at any election, they hit upon the wonderful idea of withdrawing £50,000 of funding for poor children in a way calculated to disparage the Irish national identity cherished by hundreds of thousands of their fellow citizens.

In the event of a “Hard Border” – which would be an inevitable consequence of the position adopted by the DUP – we now for the first time ever have more people in Northern Ireland declaring for a United Ireland than for the UK. As if this had not happened, still the DUP goes on with its arrogant rhetoric from fantasy land without even beginning to consider even what may be required to stop that “Hard Border” from becoming reality, far less to stop the trend of professional people in Northern Ireland thinking “You know, when you look at this carnage, maybe ‘Little Leo’ (who is quite tall actually) with his poppy-shamrock may not be so bad after all…”

Not being a psychologist, the best I can come up with is that for the DUP this is all a game. After all, most of its MPs are already extremely well off – and so, like their friends Farage and Trump, they will not suffer any practical consequences of Brexit, nor even of any United Ireland. They can play the game and they can enjoy playing the game – even if ultimately they lose. After all, it’s not the winning but the taking part, right?

Members of the Unionist minority had better wake up – and quickly – to the notion that they are just pawns in the game. No party serious about maintaining the Union would adopt the tactics, strategy or even tone their representatives are adopting. Put simply, the “Destroy the Union Party” is no friend of theirs.

Can Grieve and co save the Centre Right?

Last night’s parliamentary defeat for the UK Government must have been significant, since it sacked one of those defying the whip almost immediately. Perhaps it was significant for Brexit – that may come in another blog post.

Notably, however, I suspect it was more significant generally for centrism, moderation, and basic democracy. That is very important.

Across Europe in recent years we have seen the annihilation of the Centre Left. Usually, this has taken the form of harder left parties taking over from more established centre left ones – as in Greece, Portugal, even Ireland and to a large extent Germany. Occasionally in fact the populist-right has taken what were once centre left votes – in France, Austria and elsewhere. In some cases what were centre left parties have been taken over from inside by hard leftist populists, most obviously in the UK.

What has perhaps been less evident has been the risk of a similar, perhaps consequent annihilation of the Centre Right. It has already happened, albeit along its own already right-leaning spectrum, in the United States. Many in Europe who were once inclined to shield Trump-like views, such as UKIP in Great Britain, the DUP in Northern Ireland or the Danske Folkeparti in Denmark, have become much more inclined to state them openly. The problem with the prominent election of a sexist, racist, xenophobic psychopath is it tends to encourage others to try the same path. Why moderate if it makes you less likely to win?

This has left many of us in the UK totally mortified at what it appears our country is becoming. With newspapers categorising judges upholding the law and MPs upholding democracy as “traitors”, social media closing down meaningful debate merely by casting people into camps without in fact considering their actual positions, people decrying education and knowledge and demeaning those with them, and facts themselves becoming devalued almost to zero, UK political discussion has become a pathetic and appalling cesspit to match that on the other side of the Atlantic. One ridiculous “commentator” with more followers than sense suggested an MP should lose his job simply for one vote (and a vote, note well, which did not counter his party’s manifesto under which he was elected).

Yet two things happened yesterday. On one side of the Atlantic, in the most unlikely of places, a pro-choice Democrat appealing for cross-community support came from nowhere to unseat a xenophobic, racist Republican incumbent. On the other side, a Parliamentary vote ensured it would be Members of Parliament, not incompetent lazy Ministers, who “take back control”.

It was close, but decency and democracy won in each case. Politics is all about momentum. There is hope yet…