#LE23 – by urban area

A year ago, Northern Ireland went to the polls in local elections, whose outcome is determined in “District Electoral Areas”. However, these do not always represent areas as they are linked to urban centres. If we were to try to do this, what was the outcome?

Each broad urban centre in Northern Ireland, in terms of first preference vote (taking parties which scored 10%+) voted this time last year as follows:

Belfast (City)

SF 35%

DUP 21%

AP 16%

Newtownabbey (Urban Area)

DUP 34%

SF 20%

AP 19%

UU 15%

Ballyclare (DEA)

DUP 36%

UU 24%

AP 14%

Antrim (Greater)

SF 30%

DUP 24%

AP 16%

UU 14%

SDLP 10%

Castlereagh (Urban Area)

AP 32%

DUP 31%

SF 12%

Lisburn (Greater)

DUP 36%

AP 27%

UU 17%

SF 10%

Bangor (& North Down coast)

AP 31%

DUP 21%

UU 19%

Newtownards (+Comber & Peninsula)

DUP 39%

AP 22%

UU 13%

[OthU 12%]

Downpatrick (Greater)

SF 34%

SDLP 19%

DUP 19%

AP 17%

Newcastle (& Mournes)

SF 44%

SDLP 15%

DUP 15%

Newry (& South East Armagh)

SF 67%

SDLP 17%

Banbridge (& Dromore area)

DUP 34%

UU 25%

SF 16%

AP 16%

Craigavon (Urban Area)

SF 37%

DUP 31%

AP 11%

UU 11%

Armagh (City & environs)

SF 34%

DUP 20%

SDLP 12%

UU 11%

[OthU 14%]

Dungannon (& Clogher Valley)

SF 39%

DUP 23%

[Oth/Ind 18%]

Cookstown (DEA)

SF 50%

DUP 20%

UU 11%

Omagh (Greater)

SF 56%

DUP 16%

Enniskillen (& rest of Fermanagh)

SF 44%

UU 18%

DUP 15%

Strabane (& rural council area)

SF 39%

DUP 19%

SDLP 13%

UU 11%

Derry (City)

SF 39%

SDLP 26%

[Oth/Ind 17%]

Limavady (& Roe Valley)

SF 39%

DUP 23%

UU 12%

Coleraine (& Causeway area)

DUP 34%

AP 14%

UU 13%

[OthU 14%]

Ballycastle & Ballymoney (+Glens)

SF 40%

DUP 25%

UU 13%

Ballymena (Greater)

DUP 28%

TUV 25%

UU 14%

SF 14%

AP 10%

Larne (Greater)

DUP 32%

AP 30%

UU 20%

Carrickfergus (& Greenisland)

DUP 36%

AP 26%

UU 21%

Well, that’s all very interesting for statistical nerds, but what does it tell us that is of practical use?

Perhaps the first thing to look at are the areas where five parties are still in play – around Antrim (the DEA itself plus two either way to the south) is the only place where the traditional big five are all over 10% (in fact it is remarkably close to the result for Northern Ireland as a whole!); Ballymena (the DEA itself plus two either side) also has five parties in play, though one is the TUV (the SDLP is now down to 4%).

Some areas have all four Executive parties in play: alongside Antrim and Ballymena above, areas centred on Newtownabbey, Lisburn, Banbridge and Craigavon all fall into this category (meaning, in practice, that this applies to much of Co Antrim outside Belfast as well as much of the northern and eastern A1/M1 corridor).

In much of suburban Greater Belfast, fairly predictably, the DUP, Alliance and Ulster Unionists are the three parties in serious contention (often in that order), though Sinn Fein now joins them above 10% in many places. Conversely, in the border area, often both Sinn Fein and the SDLP are the main parties, occasionally joined by the DUP or indeed by both the DUP and the Ulster Unionists.

Taking these urban areas as our divisions, only in Fermanagh are the Ulster Unionists ahead of the DUP; the SDLP trails Sinn Fein everywhere. The Alliance Party is the lead party in the Castlereagh and Bangor areas (but comes in at over 10% only in Coleraine in areas west of the Bann); otherwise, one of the “big two” always leads. The DUP is in contention everywhere except Derry and Newry.

There are other places where particular candidates make all the difference to a party traditionally outside the “big five”; next to Armagh City is Cusher, with a strong TUV and other Unionist presence; in the Coleraine DEA a single PUP candidate beat all other parties except the DUP; the PBP alliance remains strong in the Cityside of Derry.

In my judgement, this tells us relatively little about what may happen in a UK General Election, as X-vote elections are very different beasts. It does give us some idea of what to expect in future single-transferable-vote elections, because people will tend to vote for parties which are competitive in their area and which have existing local representation.