#GE17 – where are we now?

… I have no idea. And anyone who says they have is misleading you! But here are some useful parameters from Lord (John) Alderdice:

Despite almost no reporting from the BBC, the DUP will keep the Conservatives in Government (quite probably as a minority government, and not necessarily in the medium-term with TM as PM), but the DUP will never vote for a Corbyn-led Labour party and Sinn Fein are still highly unlikely to take their seats, so instead of needing the support of 326 MPs to hold on to power, the Conservatives need 322 MPs and with 10 MP’s the DUP can give them the numbers (albeit very tight [indeed it only requires the DUP not to vote against]). Corbyn is now in place for the foreseeable future, but does not have the numbers after this election, and there will be no Labour split – the Blairites have missed their chance. Sinn Fein will feel enormously encouraged by wiping out the SDLP at Westminster – thus strengthening the NI Peace Process while causing problems for the NI political process. The SNP/Scottish result will postpone for many years the prospect of another Scottish Referendum (the SNP have lost their chance (at this time) and their momentum, as did the Bloc Quebecois after their independence referendum during the Jean Chretien (Liberal) Government in Canada – close, but missed it, and then lost momentum. Meantime, Brexit will move ahead – the only party that stood firmly for Remain (the Lib Dems) made only marginal recovery from the 2015 catastrophe, and a new leader ought to be their next decision. More thoughts in a few days, but these are my ‘morning after’ musings.

 

Advertisements

4 thoughts on “#GE17 – where are we now?

  1. Perhaps not quite so uncertain, Ian. Despite almost no reporting from the BBC, the DUP will keep the Conservatives in Government (quite probably as a minority government, and not necessarily in the medium-term with TM as PM), but the DUP will never vote for a Corbyn-led Labour party and Sinn Fein are still highly unlikely to take their seats, so instead of needing the support of 326 MP’s to hold on to power, the Conservatives need 322 MP’s and with 10 MP’s the DUP can give them the numbers (albeit very tight). Corbyn is now in place for the foreseeable future, but does not have the numbers after this election, and there will be no Labour split – the Blairites have missed their chance. Sinn Fein will feel enormously encouraged by wiping out the SDLP at Westminster – thus strengthening the NI Peace Process while causing problems for the NI political process. The SNP/Scottish result will postpone for many years the prospect of another Scottish Referendum (the SNP have lost their chance (at this time) and their momentum, as did the Bloc Quebecois after their independence referendum during the Jean Chretien (Liberal) Government in Canada – close, but missed it, and then lost momentum. Meantime, Brexit will move ahead – the only party that stood firmly for Remain (the Lib Dems) made only marginal recovery from the 2015 catastrophe, and a new leader ought to be their next decision. More thoughts in a few days, but these are my ‘morning after’ musings.

    • yes of course you are right this is a absolute nightmare especially for northern ireland What business is going to invest in northern ireland even going for the “fools Gold” of very low corporation tax with two tribes effectively at war.and only -as they would see it only the small sensible middle ground of alliance. this tribal voting is dreadful could you would you advise young people to stay?

  2. They say it doesn’t matter who you vote for, the government always win but I would take this opportunity to remind people that just because your candidate did not win you are still entitled to representation and should contact your MP to express your views regardless of party politics.

    All too often parties can claim a mandate from these votes that the electorate did not give them and they can claim this because no one tells them otherwise.

    Our rights do not end the day after the poll closes unless we choose to give them up and let the ‘Leaders’ take us where they want to go.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: