#AE17 Predictions

At last year’s Assembly Election I was three seats out. The only prediction I make this time is I will be further out with these. But anyway…

  • Antrim, East DUP 2, UU 2, AP 1;
  • Antrim, North DUP 2, SF 1, TUV 1, UU 1;
  • Antrim, South DUP 2, UU 1, SF 1, AP 1;
  • Belfast East DUP 2, AP 2, UU 1;
  • Belfast North DUP 2, SF 2, SDLP 1;
  • Belfast South DUP 1, SDLP 1, AP 1, SF 1, Green 1;
  • Belfast West SF 3, PbP 2;
  • Down, North DUP 2, AP 1, UU 1, Green 1;
  • Down, South SF 2, SDLP 2, DUP 1;
  • Fermanagh & ST SF 3, DUP 2;
  • Foyle SF 2, SDLP 2, DUP 1;
  • Lagan Valley DUP 2, UU 2, AP 1;
  • Londonderry, East DUP 2, SF 1, SDLP 1, Ind 1;
  • Mid Ulster SF 2, SDLP 1, UU 1, DUP 1;
  • Newry & Armagh SF 2, SDLP 1, UU 1, DUP 1;
  • Strangford DUP 2, UU 2, AP 1;
  • Tyrone, West SF 3, DUP 1, SDLP 1;
  • Upper Bann DUP 2, UU 1, SF 1, SDLP 1.

The totals here are irrelevant because a lot of these are toss-ups and, to begin with, they are based on assumptions which no one could be sure about one way or the other. But, for what it is worth, they come to:

  • VI Assembly DUP 29, SF 24, UU 12, SDLP 11, AP 8, PbP 2, Green 2, TUV 1, Ind 1.

If this is remotely accurate (and we never know until the votes are counted), it would suggest a Sinn Fein strategic blunder. The fact is they went to the election too early – before the case against the then First Minister was proven. That enabled the DUP to present the case as uncertain or even as a Republican plot, and return comfortably as the largest party despite some losses.

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5 thoughts on “#AE17 Predictions

  1. korhomme says:

    If you’re correct, the DUP have lost their control of the Petition of Concern.

    Do you dare do another prediction? What chance of a second election?

  2. Alan Frost says:

    What do you think of Claire Sugden? Is she the face of a new Unionism?

    • Hi Alan,

      I don’t know her, but I would say two things.

      Firstly, people are inclined to foist their own views on to such independents. We don’t really know what she stands for. Yet it seems, for example, that both social conservatives and social liberals support her, assuming she is one of them…

      Secondly, I do not know what “Unionism” is. As I tweeted recently, it seems to spend a lot of time talking to itself. Now a comfortable majority of the population is not Unionist, what exactly is Unionism?

      • Alan Frost says:

        Thanks, Ian. I was following the result numbers as reported in USA media, and they tallied 40 Unionists: 28 DUP, 10 UUP + 1 TUV, and I had to do some research to find Sugden who was unknown to me. To your question, I do not know what Unionism is exactly, but I do have a copy of David Vance’s book “Unionism Decayed” (which I edited for David).

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