Some answers on “Brexit”

Last week’s BBC NI Spotlight programme contained some questions from the audience on “Brexit” – specifically, on the impact on individual people.

Anyone who says anything with certainty about the outcome of “Brexit” is not to be trusted. However, we can take some reasonable guesses.

Border

“Will I have to show a passport to get to Dublin Airport [from Northern Ireland]?”

Almost certainly not.

The issue at the border is whether vehicles and travellers will have to be stopped at Customs checkpoints. Even this is not something which would happen overnight; it would happen gradually as (if) the UK chose to create product regulations and trading standards distinct from the EU.

Cost of living

“Will my fuel prices keep rising?”

This depends. It is worth being clear why they are currently rising, to the notable detriment of people on low and fixed incomes who have no real means of increasing their income (and thus have to save extra money from the household budget to pay for fuel).

The vote to leave the EU inevitably saw a decline in the value of the Pound Sterling. Two things then happened: first, the UK printed more money, devaluing further the money already in existence; and second, the devaluation of money increased the cost of imports. The UK is now a net importer of energy, for example, so the cost of energy went up.

The further issue is the UK Government’s apparent lack of plan for leaving the EU, with the increasing risk that the UK’s withdrawal will be “hard”, with significant tariff barriers and so on, inevitably damaging the economy. This further weakened the currency (as people sought to hold money in the currencies of stronger economies), beyond even the expectations of Remain campaigners during the referendum.

The question now is whether the UK Government can show some competence in developing a negotiating strategy. The best bet is to assume it will not, so the cost of living will continue to rise.

Special Status

Should Northern Ireland have special status?

Northern Ireland already has special status.

The 1998 Agreement establishes that Northern Ireland is within the UK for sovereignty, but that its citizens may opt for either UK or Irish citizenship (or both). This is unique; in most cases, citizenship directly follows sovereignty.

Therefore, for a start, “people of Northern Ireland” will have an automatic (birth)right to EU citizenship, even if the UK proceeds to leave the EU. This does not apply to any other UK jurisdiction, and thus already constitutes “special status”.

Added to this is Northern Ireland’s geographical location, its shared banking system (up to a point) with an EU member state, and its particular exposure to EU exports (which constitute a far higher share of NI exports than GB). Notably, uniquely in the UK, Northern Ireland also has devolution of employment and equality – enabling it potentially and unilaterally to maintain EU law and standards in those areas.

Northern Ireland’s “special status” is not, therefore, a matter of debate but rather a matter of fact. The only question is what it proposes to do with it.

EU Funding

What about EU funding?

EU Funding is only guaranteed to 2020.

The safest bet is to assume it will not be available after that date. There will be some opportunities for research institutions and potentially even structural funds, but none at all for agriculture.

Advertisements

6 thoughts on “Some answers on “Brexit”

  1. Martin says:

    “The 1998 Agreement establishes that Northern Ireland is within the UK for sovereignty, but that its citizens may opt for either UK or Irish citizenship (or both). This is unique; in most cases, citizenship directly follows sovereignty.”

    This is inaccurate.

    First, people in NI do not “opt” for UK citizenship. They are automatically UK citizens (assuming they were born in the UK with at least one UK citizen parent, which apart from a very small number of recent immigrants, is the case for everybody).

    Second, while ROI citizenship is an entitlement of everyone born in NI (again, assuming they have a parent citizen), this was already the case before the 1998 Agreement. (The only difference resulting from 1998 is that people no longer need to *apply* to become ROI citizens: they are assumed to be citizens if they so wish. However, since before 1998 most people applied for citizenship by applying for a passport, and since after 1998 most people still view obtaining a passport as the mark of citizenship, this distinction is somewhat academic.)

    • Just to be clear, what you have written there is inaccurate.

      The Agreement establishes “British, Irish or both” – clearly, therefore, British-not-Irish and Irish-not-British are options.

      Both the UK *and Ireland* regard people born in NI as their own citizens. So both are automatic, not just UK.

  2. As far as I am concerned the border dilemma coming from Brexit is much more complicated than you point out. It does not matter if the UK doesn’t want the borders of the past, the realpolitik may force their hands.

    There is already a Customs border, Ireland is partitioned into two costumes regimes, the EU simply minimised the divergence to unrecognisable levels.

    It seems that some freight is going to be hit by tariffs and non-tariff barriers on this island, it may be the case freight from NI faces not just checks, but tariffs and possibly even higher sales taxes in ROI and vice versa.

    Removing tariffs almost certainly means removing revenue, which would mean some subsidies will have to end as a result. It’s easier for the EU to do this than the UK.

    On movement of people, it seems ridiculous to not expect additional security checks on Britons leaving and entering the island of Ireland, possibly including Northern Ireland in exchange for additional security checks on EU nationals leaving Britain and Northern Ireland.

    It’ll be fairly obvious this must be done to appease English nationalism and pretty much no one else.

    • I don’t want to write too much about “the border” because actually “the border” isn’t part of the negotiations. I may write specifically that some time!

      Issues around free movement (of people; goods/services; labour) will be negotiated; and what happens to the border will be determined by that.

      • I think it’s clear that it isn’t, more a case of the fact there is a border means there are unintended consequences for decisions that both the UK and the EU may take if they merely look in insular GB and continental EU terms.

  3. Subsidies end or be cut at least.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: