Nationalists caught out by “Brexit”

In the short term, the DUP has been caught out by “Brexit”. The UK leaving the EU would cost Northern Ireland tens of millions of pounds over and above the Barnett formula – money which, therefore, will simply not be replaced. The DUP campaigned for a course of action which will come at a direct and particular cost to the people it purports to serve (in addition to making break-up of the Union likelier). Total lunacy does not begin to describe it.

Nevertheless, Nationalists have been caught out too. The sudden reality of having to work out, in reality, a scheme for withdrawal from the EU has caught Brexiteers without a plan. It was all good in theory, but Johnson, Hannan, Farage et al have absolutely no plan and no idea in practice.

And so it is with a “United Ireland”. Again, the idea was that a border polls would deliver a theoretical majority for the concept of Irish unity, but it is now obvious that Irish Nationalists have no plan either. Messrs Adams, Eastwood, Kenny et al are as clueless about delivering a “United Ireland” in actuality as Messrs Johnson, Hannan and Farage are about leaving the EU. There are even the ridiculous notions both express – notions about the EU allowing the UK inclusion within the Single Market without also insisting on free movement of labour are as daft as notions about British subvention continuing in the event of Irish unity.

Put simply, there is no plan for Irish unity. And the lesson of June’s referendum is that pursuing a theoretical option without a practical plan results inevitably in total chaos.

So Nationalists too have been caught out. They want a “United Ireland” but have shown not the slightest inkling to do the hard work and plan for one.

We are already paying the price for “identity politics” after Britain’s ridiculous “Independence Day” last month left us all 8%+ worse off. It is time to consign it to history in Ireland. Those who want constitutional change have never had a better chance – but they had better come up with a plan right now.

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4 thoughts on “Nationalists caught out by “Brexit”

  1. Pretty much at McGill’s School Eastwood said compared to the SNP’s White Paper, Irish nationalists haven’t had a page 1.

    Sinn Féin are eternal imediatists who’ve called for border polls every five months, never mind Brexit.

    I would say Martin and Kenny are toying with the hypotheticals here, the fact that they are an EU state closest to a region that voted to remain an EU state does signal that north south relationship is going to be effecting Brussels politics in one direction and London politics in the other.

    But here’s a few thoughts:

    You’ve mentioned nullifying Barnett … Effectively saying the subvention merely compensates for private sector and community group GDP loss. I’m not going to read that as partition from ROI and EU becomes non-profitable because I’m not sure what will happen at the other end.

    Effectively it leaves NI paying lots of debt and austerity like the Republic do, even needing a bailout.

    The Azores Plan for corporation tax isn’t going to be dropped, means Northern Ireland has to pay for its own corporation tax drop like the Republic do.

    The Irish border may be open but the NI-GB border may be closed in some small manners, as part of a more cautious common travel zone.

    Northern Ireland’s continental access may well be made via satellite bodies within the Republic.

    The ridiculous thing is there is a lassiez faire Irish unity in these acts or indeed separation from Britain by accident there. Not actually an Irish nation, very much de jure 2 states, De facto we share the same rivers, same mountains and some of the same fiscal misery and Northern Ireland would still be in the Union.

    The major fiscal factors that I haven’t factored in of course is what would the UK/GB market access rights for ROI and vice versa, and possible trade deals they might make.

    Scottish independence and or EU events complicate that further.

  2. Chris Roche says:

    Anti-Republic bullshit dressed as analysis from Britshit Breslin. The Republic is now the only incredibly prosperous state in the world to have a land border with a lunatic asylum!

  3. Well it’s the first time I’ve ever been called anti-Republic, but I think you may be taking a few things out of context. My post was supposed to be a bit tongue in cheek. I’m hardly evangelizing the Brexiteers as role models.

    Feel free to criticize my work, but don’t play the man here.

    If anything, I was highlighting that rather than solidifying partition in some forces, the market forces of necessity (particularly if there is an EU/UK stand off) may actually bring North and South together even without political interventions from Irish nationalists or southern Irish parties.

    This is what I mean by “Laissez-Faire Irish unity” in a sense in parts:

    Pretty much Strand 2 conformity by accident.

    Assuming on social and commercial forces are at work in response to the intermediate political events. This is very much constructive criticism.

    * Nullifying Barnett … Pretty much a calculation has to be made on dependency on UK and easy cross UK trade vs. dependency on EU, Republic of Ireland & easy cross border trade.

    *The “Azores” Plan … The UK government commits maintains the same corporation tax rules the Republic has to obey even after Brexit and Northern Ireland has to pay for it.

    These first two deal with financial independence from the rest of the UK … and it actually grounds the issue up in Stormont.

    * Migration … there is a plan to introduce measures doesn’t matter what part of Ireland you are from to get into GB, so common travel rules at Rep. Ireland and N. Ireland airports. These may just apply to EU migrants.

    * The “Satellite” Economy between the EU and UK… pretty much means the Republic of Ireland private sector may invest in Northern Ireland to enter the United Kingdom Market and Northern Ireland private sector may invest in the Republic of Ireland to enter the EU/Republic of Ireland.

    “Some of the same misery” wasn’t meant to be derogatory but realistic. Misery can cause people to find solutions, as much as to dwell on the issues.

    If fiscal difficulties the Republic has are not being stopped by being in the Union, that does bring the state of the union into question.

    Even if Northern Ireland is in the Union it is going to be heavily effected, perhaps even moreso effected by what happens in the Republic and indeed vice versa than perhaps before Brexit.

    Sinn Féin so critical of the Republic’s austerity, needs to find ways to tackle that austerity forced on its own Stormont ministers and part of the political intervention may in fact mean improving the all-Ireland economy.

    The DUP, that party who had banked on more state aid and a stronger British economy, and bonfire of regulations that made exporting easier and our environment safer (no bonfire jokes please) needs to focus on a stronger Northern Ireland economy with reduced state aid and possibly trade barriers and or opportunities.

    Poor Sudgen has to deal with reserved legislative issues around cross border criminality.

    I’m sure there may be some political will to change these things, but this was just a thought experiment about what would happen

    Obviously there would need to be political interventions if an Irish Unity state is to come to be and if that does happen there will be political resistance from Unionism.

    This isn’t a recommendation, just some constructive criticism.

    This was only about what would happen when there was no interventions, what might happen to the economy of this island.

  4. Dearg Doom says:

    Nationalists don’t currently have a plan and SF are almost incapable of making a plan. But they were not calling for referendum right now, until capitulated into it by irresponsible action the British and the DUP?

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