#AE16 Predictions

I learned last year never to try to predict an election. As one newspaper put it after everyone missed the outcome of the 1992 UK General Election, if votes were cast by electrons we could predict them; but as they are cast by electors, we cannot.

For the sake of a laugh, let us have a go as polls close. My instinct is that the DUP and SDLP have had the biggest challenge getting their vote out, but of course even that could be wrong (I was on the doors but was not asking on their behalf).

Even with that, predicting the final seat is almost impossible even once first counts are known! So take this all with a lashing of salt!

So, here we go:

  • Antrim, East: DUP 3, UU 1, AP 1, UKIP 1 (UKIP gain from SF; last seat UKIP from AP/SF)
  • Antrim, North: DUP 3, TUV 1, SF 1, UU 1 (No change; last seat DUP from UU)
  • Antrim, South: DUP 2, UU 2, SF 1, AP 1 (UU gain from DUP; last seat UU from DUP)
  • Belfast East: DUP 3, AP 2, UU 1 (No change; last seat DUP from UU)
  • Belfast North: DUP 3, SF 2, SDLP 1 (No change; last seats SDLP from AP and DUP from UU)
  • Belfast South: AP 2, DUP 1, SDLP 1, SF 1, UU 1 (AP gain from SDLP; last seat AP from SDLP/DUP/Green)
  • Belfast West: SF 4, PBP 1, DUP 1 (PBP, DUP gain from SF, SDLP; last seat SF from SDLP)
  • Down, North: DUP 3, UU 1, AP 1, Green 1 (No change; last seat DUP from UU)
  • Down, South: SDLP 2, SF 2, UU 1, Ind 1 (Ind gain from DUP; last seat Ind from DUP)
  • Fermanagh/South Tyrone: SF 2, DUP 2, UU 1, SDLP 1 (SDLP gain from SF; last seat SDLP from SF)
  • Foyle: SDLP 2, SF 2, DUP 1, PBP 1 (PBP gain from SDLP; last seat PBP from SDLP)
  • Lagan Valley: DUP 4, UU 1, AP 1 (No change; last seat DUP from UU)
  • Londonderry, East: DUP 2, UU 1, SF 1, SDLP 1, Ind 1 (UU gain from DUP; last seats Ind from DUP/TUV and SDLP from SF)
  • Mid Ulster: SF 3, SDLP 1, UU 1, DUP 1 (No change; last seat SF from SDLP)
  • Newry/Armagh: SF 3, SDLP 1, UU 1, DUP 1 (No change; last seat DUP from UU)
  • Strangford: DUP 3, UU 2, AP 1 (No change; last seat DUP from SDLP)
  • Tyrone, West: SF 3, DUP 1, UU 1, SDLP 1 (No change; last seat SDLP from Ind)
  • Upper Bann: DUP 2, UU 2, SF 2 (SF gain from SDLP; last seat SF from SDLP)

That would give us DUP 36, SF 27, UU 18, SDLP 11, AP 9, Other U 4, Other P 3 (Unionist 58, Nationalist 38, Progressive 12).

But, as can be seen from the proposed “last seat” contests, the actual result could be dramatically different if one or other party gets very lucky or unlucky (I suspect, for example, that the balance of probability is the DUP will do worse than 36 but the SDLP will do rather better than 11).

We’ll soon find out…

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4 thoughts on “#AE16 Predictions

  1. ryan2489 says:

    As a Lagan Valley voter, I hope you’re wrong!

  2. Bob wilson says:

    good punt Ian but think you were engaging in wishful thinking in South Down

    • Sort of. My sense was that there was an anti-establishment mood out there. Unfortunately for John and Henry, this was more apparent in East Londonderry than South Down.

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