For me, the most telling statistic of the Assembly Election results is this: in the nine Great Belfast constituencies (the four Belfast divisions plus the five which touch them, namely Lagan Valley, Strangford, North Down, East and South Antrim), the outcome was this:
Alliance: 40330 votes (14.0%), 8-9 seats
UUP: 38568 votes (13.4%), 5-7 seats
SDLP: 26753 votes (9.3%), 3-5 seats
Remember, the UUP outpolled Alliance in every single constituency in 2007, an already disastrous campaign. It is plain that both it and the SDLP have failed in the challenge to find a reason to exist since.
The Alliance Party does suffer from the problem that it is only relevant in Greater Belfast (although reasonable vote shares were also recorded in neighbouring constituencies this time, so there are signs of life beyond even the nine); but this problem is now different only in scale from that facing the SDLP and UUP. The SDLP was reduced to total irrelvance in two of the constituencies and made little mark in others; the UUP is also now simply not considered by voters in large parts of Belfast and its suburbs.
What matters here is not the bare figure – although that stands out – but the trend and the location. The evidence is that the trend will continue – as Alliance is seen to be a “winning” party, it will continue to gain members, activists and subsequently voters; as the others are seen to be old and irrelevant, they will lose them. The location is relevant because it is in and around the capital – with the influence on political discussion, media output and general administration that that entails.
It’s a relatively minor jump in seats for the Alliance Party, but a significant leap in general perception and thus influence. This matters. The UUP and SDLP need to figure out quickly why they matter – but the evidence of the past decade is they will fail to do so.
Ian,
I think it is a little early to declare trends just yet. The next elections are a long way away and much can happen in that time.
Ford looks likely to lose his position as Minister come renewal time with Sinn Fein agitating for the role if the leaders debates were anything to go by.
The DUP look well positioned to retake East Belfast at the next Westminster election.
Assembly reform of Ministries and the number of MLAs look likely which could again squeeze the Alliance party.
The UUP must surely look for a new leader now? McCrea or Nesbitt?
The lack of impact outside of Greater Belfast must surely be a worry with only a further 10,000 odd votes recorded in the other 9 consituencies.
So much could happen between now and 2015. Which by my reckoning could see us with Westminster, Stormont and Council elections on the same day? With only the EU elections to use as a barometer before hand.
You make some good points there. The road is still bumpy and, as you say, momentum can easily be reversed.
Nevertheless, I would still safely declare the trend. If the UUP goes as low as 16 seats (or Alliance reaches 9) Alliance will have a Minister anyway; younger voters are turned off UUP and SDLP because they’re simply not relevant; people like “winners”.
Of course, anything can happen in politics, and yet in some ways it’s easier to predict five years ahead than five days. The UUP and SDLP are already demonstrating a state of denial (after all, they won’t actually have lost that many seats) – it’ll take a further jolt before they do, and my guess is that that jolt will be terminal.
looks like I won our little bet on EL Ian.
Congrats Paul. Will he go back to the UUP though?
as for alliance results were patchy to be honest ian SB EB good but upper bann even with flash harry on the ticket it was very poor.I also think with the UUP and SDLP on there knees politically the Alliance should really have done much better.the vote EL was the same just stagnate.i feel the alliance have peaked the DUP i have no doubt will re tale EB at the next gen election.
You are quite correct Paul – mind, didn’t see a second UUP in Strangford either on basis of tallies!
What will McClarty do now, however?! Can he rejoin TUV, er, sorry, an Elliott-led UUP?
I think its a time for reflection and for certain people in EL to admit they behaved quite appallingly mccauley and harding no desprect were not in the same league as candidates to that of the profile of david.a lot depends what direction the party now wants to take ian.i like david am going to take a few days then see what un folds ie the future.
my view is its time the uup and sdlp think of some sort of cross cummuity grouping but of course it would never happen richie is not a progressive neither is tom i havnt a clue what the future holds for both one things for certaijn the uup cannot match the dup in the consituences ie work load foot soldiers members orgainistion we saw that with how well the dup got thewre vote out i have never see a machine like it it was brilliant there whole campaign.
one thing is for sure alliance have peaked and there position on the union like a lot of other issues just does not wash with folk.they are all over the place
[...] should hold. One positive to come out of this election is that Tom Elliott can no longer ignore the growth of the Alliance Party. In fairness UUP strategy over the past 5 or 6 years has continually done so, but Elliott has [...]